Wasting the three match points and still winning the title

There are three games to go, and irrespective of what happens to their opponents, the Leicester City wins one game, and claims the title. There are three games, and some of the people are saying that the game against Everton on 7^th would be the one when LCFC will claim the title. On the brand value alone, Manchester United today and Chelsea on 15^th would be tough, people assume. That is true on form, style, and the records of Everton, and its manager this season and with his earlier clubs. But as the play enters the last act for a happy ending, in the way being envisaged by many and to be endured for years to come, on the 15^th of May when Leicester play Chelsea, the end to the wait could come any day, and more likely today for a number of reasons, more importantly the churnings inside the players and their managers when the they the field. A lot of things are going to dictate the strategies; a lot of things would weigh during the execution of the strategies. More importantly, as people like call it, towards the business end, foxes and spurs have single minded goals. But this can be said of, towards a certain extent of Arsenal to finish in the top three. But it cannot be said of the opponents of the Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur, and these could have multiple goals and multiple strategies in place. That could affect the course of the games to follow.

Let’s start with Tottenham Hotspurs game tomorrow with Chelsea: Chelsea is on 47 points in 34 matches at no 10 in the rankings with four matches still to go. Mathematically, it can win maximum 12 points, gain two or three places and move on 8^th or 7^th considering Liverpool loses all its matches hereafter. It has no or little chances of finishing in top four (and qualification to Champions League). Even it finishes in top seven, it has to pray that Manchester City finish top four, automatically qualify for Champions League, and their place as Capital One winner goes to sixth place in Premier League (fifth is already qualified for Europa). They also have to pray for Arsenal wining the FA cup, finish outside four in the Premier League, and walk into Europa as the FA Cup Winners leaving the extra place finishing seventh in the Premiers League.  If Arsenal finishes fourth and beat Hull City, Hull will get the extra place as runners up in FA cup. But the chances of Chelsea finishing above Liverpool in seventh place are remote, and as such Europa chances very unlikely.

Besides Chelsea players, of all the players, would want the season to end as fast as possible for obvious reasons. So, at the fag- end to remind that they have talents, organisational abilities and will to succeed, they could spring to life all of a sudden. Or they could trudge to the finishing line disjointedly. In the present circumstances, the latter seems more likely which means Tottenham Hotspur have a realistic 60-40 chance of regrouping after the last scramble and win the match on Monday.

Spurs have next match against Southampton on 8^th May. Southampton is at 8^th place with 54 points, one match extra played and one point behind Liverpool. If the beat Manchester City today, they can dream of Europa place. If-for the first time Leicester comes into picture, Leicester wins at Old Trafford, Spurs would be dejected giving Saints a 60-40 chance, and a win. But if Leicester draws or loses the match, Spurs need two more prayers even if they win the game here and that would be pressure that could be nervy or test their characters. The tension could lead to from one end (Saints needing to win to Spurs wanting Leicester to lose at the back of their mind) to the other, and probably end in a draw.

Spurs still have a mathematical chance of winning the title with one win over Chelsea and draw with Saints (and three points behind foxes considering that foxes lose their two matches): win the last match, tie with Foxes and win the Premiership on a better goal difference!

But Spurs play Newcastle on 15^th May after the results are known, and with all the other possibilities crossed over, and Leicester fails to manage a single win, there would be bloody mess out there. Newcastle are fighting their own battles impervious of whatever happens at the top with relegation bound other fellow clubs. With a new manager taking some charge of sorts, and there could be some sort of scramble in the middle, and by that time there could be more results out there, and a draw is most likely. So even if the Foxes show some sort of largesse to their rivals, the title still could be their even if they are going to lose all the matches hereon.

So, Leicester is better placed to win the Premiership without winning the remaining matches, and that would mean players and manager more relaxed than ever. On the contrary Manchester United is wedged between different teams for different places, and mathematical chances of going to Champions League. Four more matches, gain maximum twelve points, reach seventy one, hope for City lose against Saints, win against Arsenal and then never mind win or lose against Swansea (most likely to win) and be at seventy points maximum, one behind it. Arsenal losing against Man City and wining against Aston Villa (more likely) will put it at maximum seventy, one point behind it. These hopes and wishes need to go in tandem for hopes and wishes for itself (Man United) to win against Leicester today, Norwich on 7^th (which it more likely to win), win against West Ham on 10^th and win against Bournemouth on 15^th. Two tough matches, one with the title holders (almost) and one with their nearest rival for Europa (and or feint hopes for fourth place finish in Premiership), and it seems Man United could be wishing too much. So the best shop at Championship is the fourth place held by City at present and eyed by West Ham too. So there is three-way pull for the fourth place, and equally pressure on the three teams involved.

But more importantly Man United will have to ward off the danger of moving below its present 6^th place towards ‘out of Europa zone’. There is Liverpool, Southamtpon and even Chelsea potentially chasing the Man United out of this zone if it gets stuck up at one, two or more barriers. So for it a must win match more than the Leicester, and at least a draw would help their cause. This could be dilemma for their manager-to press for the win or hold back for a draw: eying three points and not allowing one point to sleep out of its grasp. Pretty tough on their players and the manager. 

Leicester has three games, ‘serving for the championship’. Their manager knows, and the players too, that can still waste these three ‘serves’ and still win the ‘Championship’. They certainly know that they can try outrageously at this come what the consequences of the match, and still win the title. That is the position they have built for themselves. This also offloads the pressure from their legs to play a free flowing, tension-free game. Their opponents, today are not in that position and that could be advantage Leicester today.   

 
So I guess, this is the game that will put stops to all other speculations and possibilities, and coronate Leicester to the title. This is an easy game for Leicester and knowing well that it has less probability to lose the title their manager could give a final push by starting Demerai Gray instead of Okazaki, and surprise the opposite number. It could also mean toying with any strategy his opposite number have had planned with last match combination. Even if he sticks to the combination he tried in the absence of Vardy, THIS is the game that Foxes will be declared a winner with two games to spare.